The Bench

The Provincial Auditor’s Office has announced that Saskatchewan is facing a $304 Million deficit – its third straight, not the small $25 Million surplus the Sask Party has announced.  This is looking at Saskatchewan’s “summary financial statement”, the same way all the other provinces, and the feds, do their accounting.  So other provinces could be in “surplus” too if they used Sask Party accounting.

The Provincial Auditor states the province is adding another $189 million to its “total debt”.  Saskatchewan owes more than the year before and lost money over this past year, while Potash Corp posts profits in the billions.  No different than the way the NDP used to budget, but when the Sask Party ran 4 years ago on an agenda of change, all they really have “changed” is they spend more than the NDP.  After 3 straight deficits, and increasing public debt while they were at it, the only year the Sask Party ran a surplus, granted a big one, was the first year they inherited fiscal restraint from the NDP.

The Sask Party is lucky the NDP ran a prickly Lingenfelter.  Throw in a young, honest NDP leader, with a business or accounting background, and the Sask Party will have to start turning surpluses the real way, like the other provinces in Canada do.

1. http://www.swbooster.com/Opinion/Letters-to-the-editor/2011-10-11/article-2774196/Balanced-budget-boast-is-wrong/1
2. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/12/08/sk-auditors-report-1112.html

3. Anonymous source

The “average home price” in Saskatoon exceeded $330,000 in October 2011.  This is above the average home price in Edmonton and nearly $50,000 more than the average home price in Regina, both with higher average weekly wages than Saskatoon.  Winnipeg housing is far cheaper, around $90,000 cheaper, though wages there are less on average than Saskatoon.  The actual average house price in Saskatoon would be even higher, as “home” includes condos, trailers, half-duplexes etc.  http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/housing-canada/

Interesting that Saskatoon now exceeds Edmonton in housing costs.  This suggests that Saskatoon housing is seriously unaffordable, as it is more expensive than nearby large centers.  Both with higher average wages than Saskatoon.  Edmonton’s average weekly wage and annual median family income far exceed Saskatoon’s.  As well, Edmonton has cheaper gas and charges substantially lower personal income tax, and no provincial sales tax.  Really, a move to Edmonton would afford the average Saskatoon resident a raise, a chance to afford a nicer (any) house over Saskatoon and an improved standard of living.

With more and more evidence showing that Saskatoon housing prices are out of control, and that young professionals and those with mobile established career can live in a nicer house, or better area elsewhere, one has to ask, how long can Saskatoon house prices remain so high?  And will this impair the city’s ability to attract workers, who can make more, and live for less elsewhere?

For the first quarter of 2011, Saskatchewan “lost” a net 593 residents to other provinces (immigrants – emigrants).  This does reverse a long  “positive” trend of inter provincial immigration over the previous 17 quarters, albeit a minor one, with 209 residents “gained” in the last quarter of 2010.  Saskatchewan still “grew” 0.2% in the quarter, on par with most of Canada, and below Alberta’s 0.4% increase in total population.  Still, this growth was split roughly 50:50 between the “natural birth rate” and “international immigration”.

Perhaps more concerning than the relatively minor loss of just under 600 more residents to other provinces than we gained in return, is Saskatchewan’s ongoing reliance on a high First Nation’s birth rate, and immigration from third world countries to grow our population.  The First Nation’s birth rate represents a huge opportunity, but also, huge challenge.  Immigration from the third world is more a reflection of laxer laws in Saskatchewan regarding bringing ones’ family over, and one would assume most of those living in abject poverty are moving to Saskatchewan  just because they can, not because they “prefer” it over other areas of Canada.

Just another reason Saskatchewan’s “boom” is more “hype” as an average 0.2% population increase, is jointly fueled by  international migration and births, and the “boom” days, of a whopping 200 people choosing to “move” to  Saskatchewan from Alberta, BC, Ontario etc. appear over.  Meanwhile, nearby Alberta gained 5300 residents from inter provincial migration alone, part of about 15,000 new residents over all.  The graph and links below tell it all…

National graph  http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/06/22/statscan-population-study.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/06/23/sk-population-net-interprovincial-outflow-statistics-canada.html

Original Source http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/110622/dq110622a-eng.htm

NEWS

Resident doctors in Saskatchewan have Grudgingly accepted the latest financial offer from the Ministry of Health via the University of Saskatchewan.  This is after being without a contract for approximately 28 months,   including the first 23  months, where the Government of Saskatchewan refused to negotiate or even meet with the residents.  In fact, despite a formal request for a face to face meeting between Health Minister Don McMorris, the University of Saskatchewan, and PAIRS, Don McMorris never actually met with residents.

Saskatchewan resident doctors are now finally paid the Canadian average, amounting to an increase from $10 to $11 an hour over 4 years.  This leaves them substantially below  their neighbours in Alberta, and is not enough to improve their efforts at recruitment from other higher paid jurisdictions, though it may be adequate to prevent a few more medical students from leaving each year.  Residents generally cited feeling “burnt out” and “tired” of ongoing negotiations, and like they could not afford to continue to get by on their prior 2008 level wages.  The ill will built by the Saskatchewan Party towards resident doctors is not likely corrected by an increase to ”average” and the disdain towards Don McMorris by resident doctors, HSAS and SEIU may be beyond repair.

The government achieved one goal, it settled a labour dispute in only 28 months after it was due and still has yet to use its Essential Services Designation.  However, the Sask Party likely has made no dent in its Canada Worst Recruitment Rate, filling 73% of residency spots in Saskatchewan in 2011, when the national average is 90% filled, and Calgary, BC and Manitoba all fill 96% or more of their residency spots.  Maybe next time Don McMorris, Brad Wall and company will realize they need to treat valuable health professionals with respect, when resident doctors – like HSAS and SEIU members – can choose to move to Alberta, to make significantly more and pay less in taxes, yet with the same cost of living.  To all those who would critique a physician for leaving Saskatchewan, and question their loyalty, it is hard to be loyal to Saskatchewan, when they completely ignore and abuse their medical student interns and resident physicians.

Unfortunately pro-Saskatchewan Party news agencies, like the Leader Post and Star Phoenix, continue to spin the crisis in health care in Saskatchewan, with their respective stories far more positive, neglecting to mention many of the resident’s concerns and not allowing comments.

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Pairs+University+reach+agreement/4627717/story.html

Yes, the budget is not bad.  It has a very small $50 million surplus.  It decreases taxes a bit for lower income earners.  Yet, it does nothing to address issues with housing, with a paltry $1.7 million allocated, it does nothing to address the shortage of doctors in Saskatchewan, with resident doctors still not being able to convince the government to pay the 300 of them above minimum wage, or anywhere near the Canadian Average.  And the Sask Party really did nothing to earn this $50 million, a thank you is owed to Potash Corp and Mosaic for another stand up year.

However, despite the Sask Party and Don McMorris’ fiscal restraint, and saving thousands a year by keeping resident doctors below minimum wage, and the Canadian average, they did find $5.1 million to make late night beer runs more affordable at off-sale outlets.  Hopefully we don’t go over board on the new cheaper beer though, as there will be no rural doctor to see you after you crash your car or get alcohol poisoning.  Oddly, it would have been exponentially cheaper for the government to finally pay its 300 resident doctors above average, with full back pay, than to make beer more affordable.  But I guess we know what Mr Wall’s priorities are now don’t we?

http://www.leaderpost.com/Beer+Saskatchewan+budget+includes+first+beer+discount+since+1993/4492082/story.html

For 2011, Saskatchewan is again losing almost half of its newly graduated medical doctors

The government of Saskatchewan is touting the 2011 CaRMS match as a record, but their claims are misleading.  Of 72 graduates from Saskatchewan, 42 matched to Saskatchewan to start residency next year.  By our calculations, that’s 58% retention of local medical graduates.  Granted, that’s an improvement from last year’s 45% retention, but will likely still leave Saskatchewan last in Canada at keeping its new doctors here for residency training.

Some other numbers:

79 of 107 spots were filled in the first round, that’s 74% of spots in Saskatchewan were filled by some one who wanted to be here at all, most residents would rank their top 5 to 10 choices for the “first round”.  That’s well below the Canadian Average of filling 90% of spots in the “first round” of CaRMS.  In 2010, Manitoba matched 97% of their spots!  Tops in Canada, while Saskatchewan did the worst.  At 74% 2011 may not see Saskatchewan do the worst at filling residency spots, but given a historical 90% national average, Saskatchewan will likely again do the well below the Canadian average at recruitment into resident doctor positions, and very well may be worst in Canada again.

So while the government brags about “record number of residencies fill” that is the total, as they offered more spots, largely because they’ve been increasing enrollment at medical school.  A closer look, shows that 42 of 72 graduating local medical students chose the U of S among their top choices, 58%, likely again, the worst rate of local medical graduate retention in Canada.  Last time we checked, 58% is a D.  So not sure why the Sask Party is so proud of their D.

Looks like Don McMorris is failing at his attempts to retain local medical graduates.  The Sask Party doesn’t seem to realize that treating resident physicians with respect, and paying the 343 or so of them the “Canadian Competitive Average” is a lot cheaper than building a huge new medical school, predicted to cost between $200 and $300 million, and only retaining 58% of graduates, in a good year.  If Manitoba can fill 97% of their residency spots, why can Saskatchewan in a “record” year only fill 74%?

Saskatchewan is not just getting out done by Alberta and BC and Ontario in resident compensation and retention, it’s getting schooled by Manitoba, and the Maritimes!

For the record, a starting resident makes $48,000 a year in Saskatchewan, for an average of about 80 hours a week.

www.carms.ca

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Record+number+residencies+fill/4407103/story.html

News in the Star Phoenix that resident physicians have pulled their support from the “Physician Recruitment Agency of Saskatchewan”.  Not sure who the government is planning to target with their $3.5 million a year advertising budget then.  Not sure why the Sask Party government cannot see that their negative treatment of resident doctors, with no contract, and pay among the lowest in Canada, is a big part of the reason local medical graduates leave Saskatchewan for residency.

The Sask Party is obviously fouling up local medical graduate retention.  In 2010, over half the medical students graduating from the University of Saskatchewan left, the worst rate of retention in Canada.   Many blamed lack of a contract, and trying to pay off overwhelming debt on $10 an hour in Saskatchewan, while Manitoba, with a lower cost of living, pays substantially more (as does BC, Alberta, Ontario, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick).  Now, news that Saskatchewan’s resident doctors don’t support its retention strategy?  Citing lack of a plan after 2 years.  Citing a $2 an hour pay raise for 300 or so residents, that would cost less than the annual $3.5 million ad budget the Sask Party has to advertise to new doctors to stay…

The Sask Party’s actions seem down right hypocritical.  To state that “retention of local medical gradutes is a priority” but to refuse to pay them at the Canadian average, to refuse to pay them back pay, and to have more money for commercials, than to bump their 300 or so debt ridden residents above minimum wage… no wonder medical students would rather leave, than do residency in Saskatchewan!

And let’s not forget that Saskatoon is now the “most expensive city on the prairies” to live…

At least the media is finally holding the Sask Party to account for their hypocritical stance on physician recruitment and retention

Star Phoenix Editorial http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Fair+PAIRS+deal+needed+beat+doctor+shortage/4276769/story.html

Star Phoenix Article on Withdrawal of Support http://www.thestarphoenix.com/health/Pairs+withdrawal+role+unfortunate+recruitment+agency/4329841/story.html

Global TV News Article on Resident Awareness Day, and McMorris Cancelling http://www.globalsaskatoon.com/video/index.html?releasePID=FjPlyOaJ_VKZe0kuhDMhn4_4E9Iciyil

The worst part?  Don McMorris got away with blaming it on the U of S!  Too bad for him he’s finally being taken to task by the media, for neglecting and mistreating this large group of young doctors, 300 doctors who would stay in Saskatchewan, save for their disdain for the Sask Party and the treatment they’ve received while putting in long shifts to help the citizens of Saskatchewan.

In 2010, Saskatchewan lost over half of its local medical graduates, 33 of 59 left the province, the worst retention rate in Canada!

Saskatchewan loses more of its local medical graduates than any other province, leading to over 1/3 of its residency spots being left vacant.  This may be in part to Saskatchewan paying its resident physicians the third lowest in the country, ahead of only Quebec and Newfoundland.  This despite the Sask Party government’s stated goal to “recruit and retain its local medical graduates”.  In fact, the government of Saskatchewan refused to offer anything to its resident physicians for 23 months, and when it did, it was a “final” offer, with no retroactivity for graduates of the past 23 months (when the government refused to negotiate).  This final offer, would Saskatchewan residents the 4 th lowest paid, below the Canadian average for resident docs.  In fact, this offer put them ahead of only BC, Newfoundland and Quebec, and still well under the Canadian average.

Now, it seems, if the government of Saskatchewan was serious about keeping local doctors, they could at least afford to pay them the Canadian average.  After all, starting at about $10 an hour for their 80 hour weeks, its not like these resident docs are that highly paid, in fact, the resident docs are the lowest paid employee in the hospital (per hour), below even the Starbuck’s employees.

I see two possibilities,

1. Saskatchewan isn’t really “booming” and the government is just hype

2. The Saskatchewan Party is all about good sound bites, when it comes to recruitment and retention, but really doesn’t care about training local doctors.  Pretty telling as to why Saskatchewan has the fewest doctors per capita in all of Canada…

Solution?  Pay resident docs, all 300 of them, enough that medical students want to stay here to be resident doctors.  After all, Saskatchewan says they are “booming”.  Surely the government can afford to match Manitoba, New Brunswick, PEI and Nova Scotia? If not Alberta and Ontario?  ALL of which pay more than the government’s most generous offer to its residents!  Otherwise, why wouldn’t they leave to make $7,000 more annually in Manitoba and $12, 000 more annually in Alberta?  Especially when the provincial government is bragging about retention efforts, but refuses to talk to resident docs for nearly 2 years, and even then, refuses to offer them the average Canadian wage, or match the Maritimes!

http://www.leaderpost.com/health/Medical+residents+reject+contract+offer/4113431/story.html

Saskatchewan’s economy shrunk 3.9% in 2009 – substantially worse than a 2.5% contraction nationally. Manitoba on the other hand broke even.  In fact, Alberta and Newfoundland were the only 2 provinces to perform worse than Saskatchewan.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/101104/dq101104a-eng.htm

Not that bad… but weren’t all the local media types, and politicians, claiming Saskatchewan would continue to “lead” Canada in growth?  Looks like below average 2009, to follow up a worst in west 2007 when it was also predicted to lead Canada in GDP growth, and worst in all of Canada 2006… in fact, the only recent year Saskatchewan’s economy grew and exceeded the national average was 2008 – the one year Saskatchewan actually “led Canada” in economic growth.  Some boom.  Some leading economy.  It lasted one year.  Then back to below average in 2009.  Not to mention Manitoba continues to have the lowest unemployment rate in Canada… Maniboom?

Looks like the Plains is getting an upgrade!

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2010/05/25/sk-regina-building-1005.html